National anti-incumbent wave comes to CT. Expert says state is following strong trend for change

Hartford Courant – Sunday, August 30, 2026
By Christopher Keating

State Rep. Jill Barry is fighting for her political life.

The four-term Glastonbury lawmaker was ousted by her Democratic town committee after accumulating a record as one of the most conservative Democrats in the state House of Representatives. Now, she is battling back on two ballot lines in November as a Republican and Independent Party nominee.

Barry has been caught up in a national, anti-incumbent trend as longtime lawmakers have been ousted in primaries and caucuses — sometimes based on longevity and other times on ideology. In her case, Barry was caught by surprise when liberals quietly organized against her and rallied around former high school teacher Moise Carelus to defeat her in at a nominating caucus at the local Democratic town committee.

While avoiding a primary and switching ballot lines for November, Barry joins a group of incumbent Democrats who lost their primaries, including state Rep. Patricia Dillon in New Haven after 42 years, U.S. Rep. John B. Larson of East Hartford after 28 years, and state Sen. Doug McCrory after 22 years in the state legislature.

Citing recent political races in New York, Florida, Michigan, and Texas, longtime Sacred Heart University political science professor Gary Rose said Connecticut is following a strong trend for change.

“We’ve seen this wave of anti-incumbency fervor,” Rose told The Courant in an interview. “A lot of voters are looking at incumbents as responsible for their unhappiness. A lot of voters really feel they’ve been overlooked and tossed aside and that incumbents are responsible for that — not only in Connecticut, but around the country.”

Rose added, “The incumbents are feeling the brunt of that frustration in these primaries. It’s anger and frustration at the status quo.”

On the Republican side, the second-highest ranking party member in the U.S. Senate, John Cornyn, was defeated in a runoff election in May after 24 years in the Senate and became the state’s first senator to lose his seat in a primary in more than 50 years. In Connecticut, Republicans have not seen high-profile losses because the governor’s office, Congressional seats, and all statewide offices like the state attorney general and treasurer are currently controlled by Democrats.

But state House Republican leader Vincent Candelora of North Branford sees a broader change of a movement to the left among Connecticut Democrats.

“The Democrat Party is demographically changing,” Candelora said in an interview. “It’s not just incumbents that lost. It was moderate Democrats. The New Haven races, Milford, East Hartford, Glastonbury, and even the McCrory race and the Larson race, it all pointed that these individuals did not espouse enough progressive, socialist views. I think it’s a philosophical shift that the Democrat Party in Connecticut, just like they’re dealing with nationally, has to grapple with.”

In the governor’s race, Gov. Ned Lamont beat back a challenge from the left by state Rep. Josh Elliott, a Hamden Democrat who repeatedly criticized Lamont for not raising taxes on the state’s wealthiest residents. Lamont was successful against the broader anti-incumbent wave and also push for generational change as Lamont is 72 and Elliott is 42. In November, Lamont will be running against 36-year-old Republican Ryan Fazio of Greenwich.
Barry

In Glastonbury, Democrats strongly backed Carelus, a relative newcomer who also was cross-endorsed by the union-backed Working Families Party. When Carelus won a Democratic primary on Aug. 11 when Barry did not participate, the Working Families declared victory.

“Six months ago, we started organizing in this town before Moise Carelus was ever a candidate — because we believe power in Glastonbury should belong to the people who live here, not the people who’ve always had it,” the party said. “Tonight, ‘Coach Moses’ — a science teacher who built a youth soccer program from 170 kids to 470 — beat a four-term incumbent who voted against school funding, made assault weapons easier to get, and wouldn’t stand up to ICE in our schools and hospitals.”

The post continued, “This is what happens when working people organize: we knock the doors, we make the calls, we show up for each other, and we win seats nobody thought were winnable.”

Barry has broken multiple times with an increasingly liberal Democratic majority on some major bills, including as one of only two House Democrats who voted against the two-year state budget in June 2025 that had been crafted by Gov. Ned Lamont and Democrats who control both chambers of the legislature. She also joined pro-gun Republicans as one of only five House Democrats against a bill that would allow lawsuits against the gun industry. She also voted in 2019 against paid family and medical leave, which Democrats had sought for years.

As a member of the finance committee, Barry voted last year against a surcharge on capital gains on the state’s wealthiest residents and against the party’s overall tax package — two major priorities for liberal Democrats.

“In short, now is not the time to raise taxes,” Barry said at the time.

In an interview, Barry said she has not changed her philosophical beliefs as a fiscal conservative and certified public accountant who has favored law and order since she joined the legislature eight years ago. She was a close ally of former state Rep. John Hampton of Simsbury and other moderates who sometimes broke with their party on principle.

“I’ve always considered myself a moderate Democrat,” Barry told The Courant. “I’ve always been an independent thinker. It’s people willing to work across the aisle, work for the good of Connecticut. That’s always who I’ve been. I haven’t changed as a person. I’m the exact same person I was when I walked out of the chamber in May” when the legislative session ended.

“I always stand true to my principles. I always have, and I always will,” Barry said. “That means I’m not always a party-line vote. That means one day you’re going to love me and one day you’re going to hate me. I truly believe that means I’m doing the job well.”

In the governor’s race, Barry has been pictured on Facebook in a post by Manchester Republicans as she stood in mid-July on a campaign swing with Fazio and other Republicans. She declined to say whether she will be supporting Fazio or Lamont in November.

But Carelus, who is married to a medical doctor, says on his campaign website that Barry has not been getting the job done for Glastonbury.

“Our current state representative voted to make it easier for criminals to convert pistols into assault weapons, refused to keep ICE out of churches and hospitals, and made it harder for kids to get vaccines,” the website says. “Moise will do the opposite. He’ll fight to keep our community safe, welcoming, and healthy. He will always stand up for our Democratic and Glastonbury values.”

After being passed over by Glastonbury Democrats, Barry was endorsed by the Independent Party, which gains attention every four years by offering a second ballot line to select candidates who have been endorsed by the two major political parties.

Statewide, the Independent Party has only 32,000 members, but the extra ballot line generates attention when voters can see candidates’ names in two spots on the ballot. By comparison, Democrats have more than 875,000 registered voters in Connecticut and Republicans have more than 520,000, based on the latest statistics from the Secretary of the State’s Office. The largest single group in Connecticut is unaffiliated, which has more than 1 million voters.

Stewart “Chip” Beckett, a longtime Glastonbury resident who serves as chairman of the Independent Party, said Barry is a prime example of a moderate who should have a place in Connecticut politics. As a Republican, Beckett ran against Barry in 2020 and lost. But he supports her now after she fell out of favor with local Democrats.

“It points out the problems with the two-party system,” Beckett told The Courant in an interview. “She certainly has a place with us.”
Former Republican Stewart “Chip” Beckett of Glastonbury now serves as chairman of the Independent Party of Connecticut, which has endorsed state Rep. Jill Barry. Here, Beckett celebrates in 2015 with fellow Republicans on the Glastonbury town council before he left the GOP to become an independent. At left, incumbents Susan Karp and Kurt Cavanaugh embrace after they held their seats, while Lorraine Marchetti, at right, who won her seat on for Board of Education, gives a hug to Beckett.
Hartford Courant Archives
Former Republican Stewart “Chip” Beckett of Glastonbury now serves as chairman of the Independent Party of Connecticut, which has endorsed state Rep. Jill Barry. Here, Beckett celebrates in 2015 with fellow Republicans on the Glastonbury town council before he left the GOP to become an independent. At left, incumbents Susan Karp and Kurt Cavanaugh embrace after they held their seats, while Lorraine Marchetti, at right, who won her seat on for Board of Education, gives a hug to Beckett.
Veterans lost

In other races, several veteran lawmakers lost on primary night and will be departing the legislature.

In New Haven, longtime state Rep. Patricia Dillon was defeated by Eli Sabin, a hard-working graduate of Yale Law School who showed strong support in the 92nd District. He also defeated former Hamden resident Justin M. Farmer in a three-way race. After the retirement of state Rep. Mary Mushinsky of Wallingford, Dillon would have become the longest-serving House member if she was reelected in November. But now both Mushinsky and Dillon will be leaving the General Assembly after 46 and 42 years in Hartford, respectively.

A deputy majority leader, Dillon was known for her knowledge of health care, among other issues, while she served on the budget-writing appropriations committee. She was first elected in 1984 and served under six different governors from both parties, along with multiple House Speakers and majority leaders.

Dillon’s loss surprised both Democrats and Republicans.

In a Democratic district in a heavily Democratic city, House Speaker Matt Ritter of Hartford fully expects Sabin to win in November.

“Eli, as I said to him, we’re going to sit down in November, we’re going to go over committee assignments, and we’re going to put him to work,” Ritter previously said.
State Sen.Doug McCrory lost in a three-way Democratic primary battle as he sought reelection. Republicans have raised questions about money being sent to CREC, where McCrory works. 

In the Senate, longtime Sen. Doug McCrory of Hartford placed third in his battle for reelection in a three-way race against state Rep. Maryam Khan and Ayana Taylor, who are both Windsor residents. Khan won the Democratic party convention endorsement in the three-town district that also includes Bloomfield, and Khan emerged victorious.

Both House and Senate Republicans have raised major questions about McCrory, a Hartford Democrat who has been under investigation by the FBI regarding state grants that he lobbied for that were awarded to Greater Hartford nonprofits, including the now-defunct Blue Hills Civic Association. Blue Hills funneled more than $1 million to a nonprofit known as SHEBA that is run by McCrory’s friend, Sonserae Cicero-Hamlin.

A forensic audit was ordered last year after state officials were stunned when the Blue Hills Civic Association reported that $300,000 in state money was apparently sent to scammers in a fraudulent bank transfer. Workers at the nonprofit were laid off after the money went missing, and the organization eventually ceased operating.

McCrory, who served in the House for 12 years before succeeding Democrat Eric Coleman in the Senate in 2017, says he has “engaged in no wrongdoing.”

Ritter, who served in the House with McCrory, said lawmakers need to readjust with new members and plan ahead for the 2027 legislative session.

“The hardest part in politics is sometimes it’s very hard to choose how you leave,” said Ritter, who served with McCrory in the House. “For a lot of people, their last election doesn’t always go the way they hoped. These things are hard, but we have to move on.”

In Glastonbury, Barry is battling back as an incumbent who will continue campaigning until Nov. 3 on two different ballot lines.

“I didn’t lose,” Barry said. “I’m still in the game.”

While some politicians nationally have pushed for years for an independent, third-party candidate like Ross Perot for president in 1992 and for a “No Labels” movement by former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2016 presidential cycle, Barry says she does not model herself after anyone.

“I’m hoping to be the model,” Barry said. “People get so caught up in labels. It’s time to kind of forget about the labels. It doesn’t even matter. You vote for the person. You do what’s right for your constituents. There’s no need for labels. It just causes division.”

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