RWJF: Between 5M and 10M people could lose Medicaid coverage in 2028 under work requirements

Fierce Healthcare – Wednesday, March 25, 2026
By Paige Minemyer

As many as 10 million people could lose Medicaid coverage in 2028 following the rollout of new work requirements established under H.R. 1, a new study shows.

Analysts at the Urban Institute, a left-leaning think tank, estimate that between 4.9 million and 10.1 million individuals would lose access to Medicaid, depending on how intensive eligibility checks ultimately become. The study estimates that between 2 million and 3.1 million will lose their Medicaid coverage because their eligibility would be checked more frequently, while between 3 million and 7 million would lose coverage due to the work requirements alone.

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