Connecticut population increase driven by international migration

Connecticut Inside Investigator – Monday, December 23, 2024
By Marc E. Fitch

New population estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau show that increases in Connecticut’s population are driven largely by international immigration, according to CT Data, using new data from the Census Bureau “resulting in substantially higher nationwide estimates of net international migration over the last several years.”

The vintage 2024 Census data show Connecticut’s population increased by 32,046 residents between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, and that increase was driven entirely by international migration, which made up for Connecticut’s net loss of residents to other states.

Over the course of 2023 to 2024, Connecticut saw a net increase of 36,214 people due to international migration, while seeing a net loss of 6,060 residents to other states, according to figures and charts compiled by CT Data.

International migration to Connecticut in 2024 increased 44 percent over the 2023 estimates, and the net loss of residents to domestic migration decreased by 28 percent.

“Connecticut’s large population growth due to international migration mirrors the Census Bureau’s national population estimates, which showed that net international migration accounted for 84 percent of the nation’s growth of 3.3 million residents between 2023 and 2024, which was the largest annual national growth rate since 2001,” Cynthia Wilner wrote for CT Data.

Connecticut has a long history of losing population to other states but has also traditionally seen a high number of foreign immigrants, particularly with universities like Yale and the University of Connecticut drawing international students. According to the Census numbers, however, there was a spike in “Humanitarian migrants” to the United States over the last two years, with the largest increase coming in 2024.

While the latest numbers from the Census Bureau come via a methodological change to how the Bureau measures net international migration, it also comes as the New York Times reported that immigration surged under President Joe Biden to levels previously unseen in the United States.

That increase, however, also likely contributed to President Donald Trump’s re-election, as Trump ran on a platform of reducing undocumented immigration and deportation of undocumented immigrants. Connecticut Attorney General William Tong, however, has said he will fight to protect immigrants in Connecticut.

In 2019, Gov. Ned Lamont signed the “Trust Act,” which limits when Connecticut law enforcement can detain undocumented immigrants who have a civil immigration detainer, unless there is a warrant signed by a judge or that individual is wanted in a serious felony.

Connecticut has also expanded its Medicaid program to include undocumented immigrant children up to the age of 15, although the expansion appears to have quickly gone over budget, contributing roughly $13 million toward the $225 million Medicaid cost overruns lawmakers will have to face down in the next budget session.

Although the new Census numbers show a stark increase in international net migration to Connecticut, the Bureau’s numbers are not always accurate. The Census Bureau previously reported that Connecticut’s population increased between 2021 and 2022, but those figures were later revealed to be based on an error and the state had, in fact, lost population.

Overall, the new numbers released by the Census Bureau show that foreign immigration in 2024 led to the country’s fastest population growth since 2001, pushing the total population beyond 340 million.

“In total, the 2024 population estimate shows and increase of 57,893 residents compared to Connecticut’s 2023 total population estimate from Vintage 2023,” Willner at CT Data wrote. “It is also clear that Connecticut’s estimated population increase of 32,046 residents between 2023 and 2024 is due almost entirely to international migration.”

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