6 key takeaways from Connecticut’s election: Harris’ performance, state House results and more

CT Insider – Wednesday, November 6, 2024
By Alex Putterman

Election results in Connecticut on Tuesday night followed a similar pattern to what played out nationally: better-than-expected support for Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race but fairly strong results for Democrats elsewhere on the ballot.

Though barely half of votes were counted as of 1:30 a.m. — more on that below — enough results were in to draw the following conclusions.

Harris wins Connecticut — but by a smaller margin that expected

Democrat Kamala Harris won Connecticut’s seven electoral votes as expected, but her win was not exactly convincing by the state’s usual standards.

As of 1 a.m., Harris led Trump 53-45 in Connecticut, for an 8-point margin that was significantly narrower than was projected and would be the tightest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state in decades.

In fact, the last time a Democrat won Connecticut by only single digits was 1992, when Bill Clinton flipped the state from red to blue.

With nearly half of the vote to be counted, including in some of Connecticut’s largest cities, Harris may still win Connecticut by double-digits, but her victory will hardly end up the rout Democrats hoped for.

It wasn’t just Connecticut, either. Most states nationwide saw rightward shifts in the presidential race, with even Democratic strongholds supporting Harris by narrower margins than in other recent elections.

The CT congressional delegation remains blue

Also a national pattern also noticeable in Connecticut: Democrats holding their own in U.S. House races even as Harris struggled.

As of 1:30 a.m., four of Connecticut’s five incumbent Democratic U.S. representatives were returning to office.

Hayes, who represents the state’s 5th Congressional District, expressed optimism Tuesday night as she led Republican George Logan 53-47 with 69 percent of the votes counted. The race was called a few hours after she spoke to supporters. Hayes previously beat Logan by less than a single percentage point in 2022, and their rematch this cycle was seen as Republicans’ best chance to pick up a seat in Connecticut’s delegation.

Though the margins weren’t all great for Connecticut Democrats in congressional races — Rep. Rosa DeLauro led by only single-digits over Republican challenger Michael Massey — it was ultimately a good night for the delegation.

No sweat for Chris Murphy

Sen. Chris Murphy did not have to wait long Tuesday night for his race to be called. The Associated Press declared him the winner barely 10 minutes after polls closed.

With 56 percent of the vote counted as of 1:30 a.m., Murphy led Republican local business owner Matt Corey 56-43, a margin only slightly tighter than in their previous race six years ago.

While Murphy’s victory wasn’t a surprise — the Democratic incumbent was overwhelmingly favored to win another term — the fact it came so easily is a testament to both Connecticut’s status as a blue stronghold and Murphy’s popularity in the state.

Over two terms in the Senate, Murphy has become nationally known for his fierce advocacy for gun reform and for his reputation as a deal-broker. In 2022, he helped negotiate the largest federal gun bill in decades, and earlier this year he worked on a bipartisan immigration compromise that appeared to have sufficient support to pass before Donald Trump spoke against it.

With six more years in Washington, Murphy will have a chance to further establish himself as one of the Democratic Party’s national stars.

Mixed results in state legislative races

With votes coming in slowly Tuesday night, it was difficult to draw decisive conclusions about state legislative races, but both major parties appeared to have prevailed in at least a few swing districts.

Republicans could celebrate a victory for Sen. Tony Hwang in a swing-district in Fairfield, as well as Sen. Ryan Fazio’s narrow lead in a closely watched Greenwich race, plus good results in a handful of close House contests.

Democrats, meanwhile, could be encouraged by challenger Paul Honig’s lead in a key central-Connecticut senate district and by Nick Menapace’s apparent upset of Rep. Holly Cheeseman, the top Republican on the legislature’s Finance Committee.

In the end, Democrats held a large edge in the state legislature before this election, and they will maintain that advantage, give or take a few seats, when the dust settles.

No-excuse absentee voting could be on the way

A ballot question paving the way for an expansion of absentee voting in Connecticut passed Tuesday night, the Associated Press projected.

Whereas currently voters may only vote absentee if they’re out of state, sick or disabled, the state may now shift to a system under which anyone can vote absentee for any reason. Currently, 28 states offer no-excuse absentee voting, while another eight, as well as Washington D.C., send ballots to every voter.

Importantly, the passage of the ballot question does not automatically install no-excuse absentee voting, it merely allows the legislature to implement the practice. Expect that to be a priority for Democrats in the legislative session next spring.

Connecticut does not count votes quickly

Connecticut has plenty of strengths as a state, but counting votes quickly is not particularly one of them.

As of 1:30 a.m., more than five hours after polls closed, the state was still reporting only 57 percent of votes in the presidential race, fewest of any state in the Eastern time zone. Neighbors Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island, by comparison, had each tallied more than 80 percent of ballots by the same time.

Even most states farther west, whose polls closed much later than Connecticut’s, were reporting more results as of early Wednesday morning.

It’s unclear exactly why counting was so slow in Connecticut on Tuesday night, but officials will likely face questions about the subject in the coming days.

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